Blog Post 5: Matchweek 25

Premier League Matchweek 25 is finally upon us! This is the schedule: 

#BPL Matchweek 25 starts on Tuesday! Take a look at where in the world you can watch: http://t.co/YuRA48oJ1b pic.twitter.com/wljIBJYoCP
— Premier League (@premierleague) February 9, 2015

The matches I watched this week were Liverpool v Tottenham and Chelsea v Everton. I watched highlights of the rest of the matches.

Player of the week:

Nemanja Matic (Defensive Midfielder, Chelsea)

This week, Matic played the full 90 for Chelsea as they faced an Everton side struggling to get points in the Premier League. It is not often that Matic's name pops up on the score sheet, and this week that trend continued. However, Matic's contribution to his team is still massive.

As someone who plays the role of defensive midfielder on Jose Mourinho's side, Matic has a lot of responsibility. The overall general responsibilities of a DM are to prevent quick counter attacks and to connect the defense to the offense. Fulfilling these responsibilities includes tasks such as making tackles and interceptions as well as making forward passes and dribbles, all with minimal mistakes made in the process.

To formulate how Matic fulfilled all of these responsibilities in the match against Everton, I now need to select some important statistics that represent how these responsibilities were fulfilled.

What I chose (Matic v Everton):

• Tackles (1)
• Interceptions (2)
• Fouls (1)
• Pass completion percentage (89.8%)
• Percentage of shots on target (33.3%)
• Dribbles (7)
• Dispossessions (2)
• Unsuccessful touches (1)

Most of these stats are coming from the incredible WhoScored.

Now, my task is to put all of these statistics into a formula to rate Matic's performance against Everton on a scale from 1-10. As I watched this game, I know that Matic played well and I feel his rating should be in the range of 7.5-9.

To put all of these statistics into a formula, I need to turn them all into percentages so they are all the same unit. To do so for tackles, interceptions, and fouls, I am making them into a ratio that is fouls per tackle + interception (33.3%). To do so for dribbles, dispossessions, and unsuccessful touches, I am making them into a ratio that is dispossessions + unsuccessful touches per dribble (42.9%).

The final step in the creation of this formula is creating a scale that accurately weighs each of the importance of each statistic.

The order of the importance of each percentage is (from least important to most important): percentage of shots on target (33.3%), dispossessions + unsuccessful touches per dribble (42.9%), fouls per tackle + interception (33.3%), pass completion percentage (89.8%).

The weight of each statistic in the formula is:

• Percentage of shots on target (33.3%): 5%
• Dispossessions + unsuccessful touches per dribble (42.9%): 25%
• Fouls per tackle + interception (33.3%): 30%
• Pass completion percentage (89.8%): 40%

Here is a step by step of how I calculated each number:

1. 33.3 X 0.05 = 1.665
2. 42.9 X 0.25 = 10.725
3. 33.3 X 0.3 = 9.99
4. 89.8 X 0.4 = 35.92
5. 1.665 + 10.725 + 9.99 +35.92 = 58.3
6. 58.3 ÷ 7 = 8.33

I decided to divide the sum of each statistic by 7 because that is the number that worked best to convert the statistics into the scale of 1-10. I feel like 7 was likely the number that worked best because it is 1 less than the original number of statistics that I used before I combined some and turned them into percentages. I will definitely test this hypothesis on formulas for other positions.

Matic's Rating: 8.33

To test this formula, I used another Premier League defensive midfielder, Francis Coquelin of Arsenal. Having watched him play live, I feel his rating should be in the range of 7-8.5.

• Percentage of shots on target (0%): 5%
• Dispossessions + unsuccessful touches per dribble (33.3%): 25%
• Fouls per tackle + interception (33.3%): 30%
• Pass completion percentage (82%): 40%

Here is a step by step of how I calculated each number:

1. 0 X 0.05 = 0
2. 33.3 X 0.25 = 8.325
3. 33.3 X 0.3 = 9.99
4. 82 X 0.4 = 32.8
5. 0 + 8.325 + 9.99 +32.8 = 51.115
6. 51.115 ÷ 7 = 7.3

Coquelin's Rating: 7.3

It seems I have found success in my defensive midfielder rating formula! After many trials, it finally works! The experience of creating this defensive midfielder rating system should help the rest of the process go a lot quicker and smoother. I can't wait to see how the other positions turn out!